1/08/2008

Some Quick Thoughts on New Hampshire

1) It's a delight to see both Romney and Huckabee giving concession speeches. Hopefully that will keep happening a lot.

2) That whole Obama hype thing? Not so much. Big difference between a public vote in a caucus and a secret ballot in a primary. Call it the Wilder effect or the Bradley effect, but it's real.

3) The Democratic race may be over. Edwards isn't likely to be a factor again (except maybe in North Carolina) which puts Obama in a tough spot. He's drawing a lot of support from people who don't often (or never) vote. It's hard to translate that into wins. You're going to hear a lot of talking heads going on and on about long races and brokered conventions, but I'm not so sure. Hillary has huge built in advantages that will stay with her. I think she's going to win, and it may not be close.

4) The GOP race is a mess. Three states (yep, did you forget Wyoming?) and three different winners. The party is (perhaps hopelessly) divided. Romney's got the money to finish second another 40 times, but will he spend it for that? Huckabee has to win South Carolina or he's toast--and I'd get the butter at this point. McCain is wildly unpopular with a lot of people, but he may win by process of elimination. (And yes, I did already write a campaign obituary for him, so if he does, I'll have egg on my face.)

5) It's amusing to hear dozens of highly paid people who didn't see an election result coming tell you why it happened. Maybe a little more humility from the press would be in order. HA.

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