Final 06 Picks

Maybe I'm crazy (wouldn't be the first time). I know I'm not using any controlled substances. I do have a preferred outcome. Discounting for that, here's what I think is going to happen tomorrow. The Democrats are going to be weeping, wailing and gnashing their teeth. The Republicans are going to be laughing all the way to the bank.

The Senate stays Republican. Range 54 to 56 seats. Yep, I think the Republicans are going to run the table. They currently hold 55 seats. I think they will net losing no more than one, and, if the stars are aligned, they may even pick one up--net.

The House stays Republican. Range--a loss of 8 to 11 seats net. (The Dems need 15 to take over.) There are a few incumbents who deserve to lose. Yes, Mr. Sherwood, I'm talking about you. No one is talking about Republican pickups, but even in 1994 four Democrats won Republican seats. I know 1994. 1994 was a friend of mine. And 2006, you're no 1994.

Why am I walking so far out on the limb with these predictions? Simply put, I do not believe the polls. I think the assumptions are wrong, the turnout models are wrong, the likely voter screens are totally screwed up, and the decline in response rates has rendered polling problematic. I think the press is telling us what they want to happen.

I may be all wet. I may be eating a plate full of crow. But that's what I think. We'll find out soon.

UPDATE: Just to make it clear, I am not saying the Republicans deserve to win. There's a whole lot of nose holding going on when I vote for them. They have fallen down on the job in too many ways to list in one post. It's just that the alternative--Dean, Pelosi, Murtha, Kerry--is too dangerous to even contemplate. I don't buy the whole "two years in the wilderness will teach the Republicans a lesson" line of thinking. There's a real shooting war with people who want to kill us going on. We can't afford two years right now.

UPDATE #2: Welcome Hugh Hewitt and Townhall readers. Please feel free to take a look around (if you've voted...otherwise get off the computer and go vote!) and kick the tires.


At 11:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm on your side, but hope is not a method. I am concerned that too many Republicans mouthpieces are also stuck inside their own echo chambers and that they are not tapping into the disaffected base. If they were, we wouldn't be in this sorry mess.

At 11:50 AM, Blogger Major Mike said...

I am leaning with you. The polls are screwed up, because the pollsters intentionally mislead in favor of the Dems early on. The only reason races "tighten,"is because they want to stay in business, and if they can't get their final polls into the margin of error, they will be out of customers next go-round. Make no mistake...the early polls are meant to manipulate votes, but I would think it would be apparent by now, it only seems a motivator for the GOP GOTV effort. Nice piece. MM

At 11:57 AM, Blogger stavr0s said...

When I held my nose and voted straight Republican this morning at 6 am, I wasn't just voting against Democrats, I was voting with disgust at the mainstream media.

At 2:26 PM, Anonymous Gary M said...

Anonymous said...
"I am concerned ... we wouldn't be in this sorry mess."

Perhaps WE should do something about it by becoming far more active and assertive in our communication with our representatives so they CANNOT exist only in their own echo chambers. I know I contacted by reps several times in the past year, but maybe that is not enough. Maybe I need to do more.


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