Final 06 Picks
Maybe I'm crazy (wouldn't be the first time). I know I'm not using any controlled substances. I do have a preferred outcome. Discounting for that, here's what I think is going to happen tomorrow. The Democrats are going to be weeping, wailing and gnashing their teeth. The Republicans are going to be laughing all the way to the bank.
The Senate stays Republican. Range 54 to 56 seats. Yep, I think the Republicans are going to run the table. They currently hold 55 seats. I think they will net losing no more than one, and, if the stars are aligned, they may even pick one up--net.
The House stays Republican. Range--a loss of 8 to 11 seats net. (The Dems need 15 to take over.) There are a few incumbents who deserve to lose. Yes, Mr. Sherwood, I'm talking about you. No one is talking about Republican pickups, but even in 1994 four Democrats won Republican seats. I know 1994. 1994 was a friend of mine. And 2006, you're no 1994.
Why am I walking so far out on the limb with these predictions? Simply put, I do not believe the polls. I think the assumptions are wrong, the turnout models are wrong, the likely voter screens are totally screwed up, and the decline in response rates has rendered polling problematic. I think the press is telling us what they want to happen.
I may be all wet. I may be eating a plate full of crow. But that's what I think. We'll find out soon.
UPDATE: Just to make it clear, I am not saying the Republicans deserve to win. There's a whole lot of nose holding going on when I vote for them. They have fallen down on the job in too many ways to list in one post. It's just that the alternative--Dean, Pelosi, Murtha, Kerry--is too dangerous to even contemplate. I don't buy the whole "two years in the wilderness will teach the Republicans a lesson" line of thinking. There's a real shooting war with people who want to kill us going on. We can't afford two years right now.
UPDATE #2: Welcome Hugh Hewitt and Townhall readers. Please feel free to take a look around (if you've voted...otherwise get off the computer and go vote!) and kick the tires.