Nobody Knows Nothing
There's an old saying in the entertainment business: "Nobody knows nothing." What it means is that you never know for sure what's going to work and what's going to flop. Sometimes sure things bomb. Sometimes long shots win big.
I've been thinking about that phrase looking at the polling data over the last couple of days. It's literally all over the place. On the same day, we got polls showing Obama up 9 and McCain up 2. State polling has been shaky as well. It really does seem to vary at least day by day if not more frequently than that. Every time one candidate seems to open a lead, the other closes.
I still think Obama has the structural edge. Parties almost never win three elections in a row. The economy is a mess. The incumbent President is one of the most unpopular ever (although still way more popular than Congress). All these things mean "the One" should win in a walk.
But he's also the most liberal and least qualified candidate in memory. (I still can't believe people planning to vote for him have the nerve to question Palin's qualifications. Talk about blind spots!) And as of today, with now less than 40 days to go--and people already voting in several states--I don't know nothing.
It really could go either way. I'd make it 55-45 chance of Obama winning...but that's today. Tomorrow could look different again.