The End of the Beginning

Tomorrow will not end the primary campaigns (or the endless commercials) for the Republican and Democratic nominations. But it will reveal much about what is coming next.

For the Democrats, Obama appears to have the momentum, but it's not clear whether he can overcome Hillary's institutional advantages. I frankly do not understand his appeal at all. Change and hope are not a governing philosophy. The inexperienced Illinois senator does not inspire confidence in a dangerous world. But he is obviously connecting with an awful lot of voters...and contributors.

On the Republican side, the talk radio/opinion magazine axis is under attack by John McCain. The outcome of Super Tuesday might end the contest, but since Romney can stay in simply by writing another check, what would destroy another candidate may only be expensive for him. The question is whether he's willing to invest so much in a major turnaround project. I repeat the contention I made nearly two years ago: it was a horrible mistake for Romney not to run for reelection as Massachusetts governor. If he had run (and won) he would have a much longer track record to convince skeptics like me of his conservative bona fides. I think he's done--but then I thought McCain was done a few months back too, so we'll see.

I'm voting tomorrow, and you should too if you're in one of the 20+ contested states.